Analysis Link: Q1 TDT EDH League Analysis

Introduction and Overview

Welcome in to your Q1 Performance Reviews everyone. This is the follow up to the DEI Report that was posted a bit ago. This is going to be looking at the quantitative data from the league through Q1. We will look at wins / losses for players, decks, and other random groupings. I will write criticisms, priases, and observations through all. Do not take it personally, this is me looking through the analytical lens. This data set is small and not robust, so there will be heavy swings. The end of year review will be a thorough look in. “Traditional” labels are to indicate 4 player matches, not beating your wife for overcooked meatloaf. We will primarily focus on that, but there will be some 2HD mixed in. Additionally, high scores are good here, this data is NOT golf scoring.

This is going to be a thicc article, so strap in tight and enjoy the read through.

Macro Statistics

Pole Positions

This league was clearly dominated by a singular entity, and that was Keegan. Out of the 15 traditional matches that were played, he took 7 of them. A disgusting 46.67% win rate, aided it being his second league, but also a testament to his deckbuilding / refining in the off season. The other interesting split is Rich, with the second most wins. He has a “boom // bust” result through the first quarter. He wins or loses a lot, but favors the top half of the two. with 5 second place finishes.

Now Jeff and Sean are in interesting positions. Jeff is extremely… average with his finishes. He is on a 3-4-4-4 split between positions, incredible truly when you think of it. This is tough to draw conclusions from, but I do think it shows his deck spread may need refinement, but he has the skill to go the distance. Wild setup. Sean is the most interesting finisher. He is neither a top or bottom finisher, but instead eats within the middle. Hes tied for least ammount of last place finishes, but only has 1 Win. He leads both 2nd and 3rd place. He plays a ton of snow ball which can have a tough time if pressured early, so I would recommend a couple more decks that are making a presence early for him

The 2HD stats are a bit too slim with total of numbers so not much talk about there. But here are the stats for reference.

Referential Statistics

Does Rarity buy Wins?

This is a bit early to determine due to sample sizes being small, but the concept of commander rarity and win rates is an interesting one. We need more data points to answer this definitively, but so far it does not seem the case. There is a lot more normalizatrion with the Mythic due to more reps, but it has almost perfect parity with Rare. Uncommon is solely Rich’s deck, but it has put up great results so far. Yes, there are some mythic uncommons and deck building factors into all this, but it is a very interesting correlation to see play out. I am excited to get more data and reference it.

What is the ideal CMC?

Again the lack of overall numbers hurts, but still some very interesting stats. 4cmc decks dominated the overall matches, with over half of them being that. The sweet range here seems to be varied though, which is extremely optomistic. As a side note, the 4.5 CMC is Sean’s partner deck, needed to do so in order to record games correctly.

There is no real sweet spot in the meta currently for overall CMC. 3 and 4 CMC are tied in finishing position, with 5 having a slightly better. The 9 is skewed by Zacama being a force in the meta. What is eye opening is the 2 CMC putting up those numbers. The reps are bit higher than 5CMC, but still low. But the two decks, Trelessara and Sythis, are putting up fantastic numbers.

Un-conclusive data though so far, which as a league manager is very, very exciting. Every CMC has a strong chance to post a result, which indicates the league is not paced to fast nor too slow.

More or Less Color?

Similar spreads for appearance here as it was above, but some very interesting results. First off, mono color does not have a great finish. This is an area I am slightly surprised by the severity of it. The total rep count is low for both, but the 4 and mono color decks posting almost exact results is a bit jarring.

Two and three color dominate the appearances, but also the finshing position averages. The real stand out is the ‘ol reliable, tw ocolor decks. Smaller sample size, ubt pushing a +.6 finishing position over the three color decks.

This block of info is limited currently, but I think that this a good referential point for deck building into Q2. Extremely excited to find the results next quarter and do a review with all the datas.

Who Shot First?

This is a statistic that I have been wanting to track for many, many moons. The concept of play / draw is normally a 60 card statistic, but I was wondering if there was a correlation port to EDH. And even with a limited sample size, there is some definitive answers. So far, it has given you a 0.3 better positioining to be on the play than draw. Every single player, with the exception of Sean, have benefitted from being on the play rather than draw. The largest split of this is Keegan, who has a delta of +0.5 positioning being on the play rather than the draw. Now there are other factors, such as turn order and positioning at the table, but this data backs up my suspicions. Being on the play is instrumental in accruing wins, and for some, it is more than others.

I really want to note that Sean shows incredible consistency from one end to the other. Some may see his number sbeing the “worst” as a bad thing, but I do think that that it is still good in this case. In a format where you will be on the draw 75% of the time, having no split in whether you are or not is great. Yes placing higher is always key, but Sean having a higher win rate on the draw is a benefit in the overall for him.

Very, very cool statistics to see here and I am knocking myself for not tracking them before.

Deck Statistics

Overall

Now that is a large chart and tough to view on mobile I assume, but it is the basis of this discussion. I will be breaking it into smaller parts. All of the names in grey are decks to watch out for in my opinion. I will get into it more by player,but each player has some serious decks to watch out for. This will be done in alphabetical order. The final recap will be looking at decks wholistically.

Jeff

For his first EDH league, Jeff has been posting some really solid decks and results. The first to talk about is the often banned Krenko. I have this deck with a singular appearance, and it took the W. This mono colored, turbo token tribal deck is awesome. Still some tuning needed imo, but obviously well respected on the ban hammer.

Second note is Sythis. Sythis is a monster and a classic of Jeff’s. She is overpacked for the mana cost, being a draw engine, lifegain engine, and enabler for other draw engines at 2 CMC in the commander zone is insanity. When it comes to value, I would say that Sythis offers the best bang for converted mana cost. Her downside is dying to more removal than most commanders, but she often is stacked with protection for that. She currently sits at 1-1-4, which is incredibly respectful. I assume she has even further refinements, but I will let those recs. be made by our resident enchanter.

The final deck is one that has not posted many wins but is a serious contender. This would be Satya, the energy fueled nightmare for his opponents. I do not fully understand how this deck is so good, the theory of it is too abstract to my simple battlecruiser mind. But reports from on-site members note that this deck is a menace. I hope Jeff spends a good bit of time testing and refining him, I think genuinely that he may be in contention for deck of the league if done so.

From looking at Jeff’s lists, I think he is on the right track. He is part of the low land count which as time continues, the variance will kill him I think. I would like to see a 35-38 land count in all his decks as a basis. He also has incredible bones to his decks. The three listed are at lieke 75-85%, some further testing and work will put them into the 85-95% range and push him over the finish line. Jeff needs to self depreciating and realize hes very good in our meta. Whooped our asses in the Pio league, and has shown bursts of doing so in this league.

Keegan

Well it is time to speak of the boogie man that was Keegan this quarter. He posted insane results all around, and almost all his decks could be noted. But I have one good and one surprise to touch on.

Zacama, the big body mama of dinos went on an absolute tear through the league. Appearing 3 time in traditional matches and taking gold each time. I remember this deck being an absolute menace when it appeared, and it was like Arcades, built to be fun and meme-y. But, just like Arcades, it performed welllllll above the anticipated baseline. I cannot give recs on how to manage this commander, for it cooked most of my decks (cries in Hapatra 2/2 body), other than you need to remove it when it hits. This may be the sole case where you should counter ramp spells. This deck is such a problem.

The surprise was the record that Zur has posted. Same appearance numbers as Zacama, but posting a miserable 3-4-4 finish record. From speaking to Keegan, I know that this is his most researched, tested, and refined deck in his aresnal. I also know that it is probably his most powerful. So seeing it post those numbers is a surprise. I wonder if the known factor effects targeting or it needs meta adjustments.

Keegan had a very strong quarter, no denying it. But with winning comes targeting from others. The meta will shift and adjust to beat his decks, and Keegan will need to be ahead of or parallel to these changes to see the same results this coming quarter. Let us see how long the king will reign.

Rich

Now Rich has a very interesting position within the meta as the primary / dedicated combo player. He also has spent the most time crafting and submitting new commanders this season so far.

Chatterfang is one of his OG decks, and I think one of his best as well. It has only been seen twice for a 1-4 split, but I think that this deck is amazing. The combo potential with the colors and commander are strong, but it also has my favorite aspect, with it being able to win through the board. I think that Chatterfang is in need of some tuning and testing, and once stress tested will be his boogie man to the table.

Mothman is from UB which I hold a bias towards, but I also cannot deny that the deck has some legit power behind it. The rad counter tracking is a bit of pain for the table, but does work. I saw this deck get both results in person, and believe that with the correct land count this deck has a chance to be a consistent contender performing well over baseline.

The last, but not least is house of Trelasarra. She is the people’s champion as the only uncommon commander in the meta. But she also has posted a mental 1-1-2-2 record so far. I think that she is currently the best deck. Showing off the power of scrying and life gain, with a built in voltron feature is incredible. A true mythic uncommon. This deck construction is great as well, and runs parallel to the results.

My previous statement of Rich being “boom // bust” is how I see his deck building currently. He is running extremely low land counts akin to cEDH builds, but the issue is that this is not a cEDH league. His decks explode but due to what were looking at for turn wins and all, he often meets a bit of interaction and stalls. I believe every single Q Cup game he had a T0 or 1 Tutor of some kind. The issue is the split between our league and cEDH is that we are aiming for a later turn win and much less of winning on the stack. Him and I have spoken on deck construction and all, so it is known, but I do think building for less explosion and more stability will rocket him up the standings in short time. I also want to see Rich sit with a pool of decks and refine and tune them over a period of time. Trying loads of decks is a blast, but refining your heaters helps convert wins. Insane number of decks with powerful bones, just needs sometime to scry and modify ’em. Lastly, stay away from Mardu lolololol.

Sean

Sean has a tough spread for a handful of reasons I will get to at the end. But he also has some gas tossed in here.

Obuun has consistently been Sean’s best deck for a long time. It has yet to hold the gold, but posting a 2-2-2-2-3 record is extrremely good. Being second in this league is still winning when compared to baseline, just not the winner. I really like this deck and think it is one of Sean’s best creations to date. I would like a robust tutor-hoof package still, but it is undeniably good currently. A bit of tuning and those wins will begin to pile on

Locust God somehow only has 1 traditional appearance, but it ripped a win. I like this a deck a ton and have recently helped him tweak it a bit. This is a perfect Sean commander, and I think his solo win reflects that as well. I am excited to see this deck get more reps and finishes.

My recommmendation for Sean is what I told him over text, run some more low down creature decks. Most of his decks are snowball decks, which means he takes early aggro due to being open and also the known factor that if you let him setup dragons, then you are probably cooked. Putting together some creature centric, or early value decks would be great. Obuun is also his only pure green deck that has made an appearance, and it has shown great results. I think Sean is secretly a green mage and should explore that space more.

Closing Thoughts and Notes

Who is Sitting at the Top Right Now?

I have highlighted the 5 major decks that I think are top at the moment. All of them post a fantastic average finish position and are in the mid to top represented deck appearances. All of these decks should be in your mind when the weekly ban rolls around. And honestly, when offered the opportunity, point the hate towards em.

Topside Advice

My advice to the group is look at the stats and decks, then make a decision on what you NEED to do in order to post wins. Everyone has a pool of decks that can post wins, they just need some love and refinement.

Always adjust to the meta too. I built Torens last league because I got sick and tired of voltron or enchantress kicking my ass. Every game is a testing game, league or not. So stay mindful of that when you play and note what is impactful or not in your decks, as well as what is killing your decks. It takes a lot of mental computing mid game, but it also helps you refine and tune decks.

I am open, as is Keegan, to seeing your list and giving you some feedback. There may be lists we cannot help with due to not really knowing how to do it. Hand me a spell slinger storm deck and I will run for the hills (R.I.P Kykar) lol. But if you want a third party reach out to us, and honestly anyone in the league (just using us cause I know we have offered) and they will lend advice.

I am extremely excited to see how this league unfolds. There’s loads of competition all year long, and the meta is incredibly diverse and healthy. Yes there has been hiccups and what not, but overall this league from a managerial stand point has seemed amazing and I anxiously await the meta development!